Extreme Weather Threatens Stability of China’s Renewable Energy Boom
As China’s massive electrical grid leans increasingly on renewables like wind, solar, and hydropower, it’s also facing a growing vulnerability: the weather. While these clean energy sources are reshaping the nation’s energy profile, their dependence on environmental conditions poses a significant risk to grid reliability—potentially leading to a renewed reliance on coal.
China’s Green Power Revolution
China now leads the world in renewable energy capacity. Each month brings record-breaking outputs in wind and solar power, and the country has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. Currently, around 50% of China’s electricity generation capacity comes from renewables, a figure expected to rise to nearly 90% by mid-century.
However, this transition comes with a caveat. Renewables are weather-dependent, and fluctuations in sunlight, wind, or water availability can cause significant dips in power supply. Southern China’s vast hydroelectric infrastructure, which helps balance intermittent solar and wind power, is particularly vulnerable during drought conditions. What happens when all three sources falter at once?
Modelling the Worst-Case Scenario
To explore that question, researchers led by Jianjian Shen at the Dalian University of Technology modeled how China’s future power grid would perform during extreme weather events, using past climate records to simulate worst-case conditions.
Their findings were sobering. The future grid, heavy with renewable energy, was significantly more sensitive to weather changes. In years with the most adverse weather patterns, overall power generation could fall by up to 10%. By 2030, this could mean an energy shortfall of over 400 terawatt-hours—nearly 4% of national demand.
“These aren’t numbers policymakers can afford to ignore,” says Li Shuo of the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington, DC.
Hydropower Bottlenecks and Grid Instability
One of the key risks is the impact of droughts on hydropower. Without sufficient rainfall, hydroelectric plants can’t provide the baseline power needed to offset variability from wind and solar sources. This can trigger widespread electricity shortages and force reliance on backup systems.
The researchers concluded that China’s grid needs more stable power sources—those less susceptible to meteorological shifts—to avoid systemic failures during bad weather years.
Solutions: Storage and Infrastructure
One way forward is to enhance power transmission between provinces. Better interconnectivity could allow regions with excess energy to support areas facing shortages. The study found that expanding transmission infrastructure could eliminate power shortfalls on today’s grid and reduce risks by half by 2060.
Another key solution is energy storage. Massive investments in battery storage and other technologies could provide backup power during renewable slumps. China is already ramping up efforts, with plans to build 190 gigawatts of pumped hydro storage—systems that pump water uphill using surplus energy, then release it to generate power when needed.
“The scale of storage needed is enormous,” says Li, “but it’s within reach given the size of China’s battery production.”
Coal Makes a Comeback—But at What Cost?
Despite these opportunities, power shortages have often led to a fallback on coal. During recent droughts and heatwaves in 2021 and 2022, blackouts and power demand spikes pushed the government to authorize new coal-fired power plants. In 2023, a year of record-low hydropower output coincided with a spike in carbon emissions.
President Xi Jinping has pledged to cap coal power this year. But political and economic pressures have made phasing it out difficult. “If another round of blackouts hits, we can’t let coal be the answer again,” warns Li. “It’s tough—China has a strong attachment to coal.”
The Path Forward
China’s clean energy journey is reshaping the global landscape, but ensuring its resilience is crucial. Investing in flexible infrastructure, scalable storage, and smarter policies could allow the country to navigate the growing impact of climate variability without backsliding into fossil fuels.
Ultimately, avoiding a return to coal during energy crises is key to meeting long-term climate goals—and building a grid fit for a sustainable future.